Description

Rating: Not rated

Tags: Economics, Lang:en

Summary

The crisis of 2008 ended the illusion of a golden era in which many people imagined that prosperity and political calm would continue to spread indefinitely. In a world now racked by slowing growth and mounting unrest, how can we discern which nations will thrive and which will fail?

Shaped by prize-winning author Ruchir Sharma's twenty-five years travelling the world, The Rise and Fall of Nations rethinks economics as a practical art. By narrowing down the thousands of factors that can shape a country's future, it spells out ten clear rules for identifying the next big winners and losers in the global economy.

Each rule looks at a nation's political, economic, and social conditions in real time to filter out the hype and noise. He shows, for example, how slow population growth is eroding economic growth, and ranks nations by how well they respond. He describes the way cycles of political complacency and revolt fuel economic booms and busts. Amid growing tensions over inequality, he demonstrates how billionaire lists yield clues to which economies are most or least threatened by extreme wealth. In a period when the world is struggling with trillions of dollars in new debt, he explains which nations are most likely to avert this threat or buckle under it. Sharma's rules are based on the data he has collected over many years at Morgan Stanley Investment Management in New York, where he is now Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Global Strategist. This is a book of original research, not mere opinion.

The final chapter takes the reader on a surprising world tour of the likely winners and losers in the near future. The Rise and Fall of Nations is enlivened by Sharma's stories from the road and his encounters with presidents, tycoons, and villagers from Rio to Beijing. It is a pioneering field guide to understanding our impermanent world.

**

Review

“How do you write a compelling book about which nations will rise and fall over the next five years? Probably not by suggesting that it’s mostly random, except for extreme policy mistakes. True, Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley, offers much more than that in The Rise and Fall of Nations. He recounts his exhaustive global travel that has him meeting with Vladimir Putin on one page and listening to George W. Bush analyzing Vladimir Putin on the next, and he describes his massive research effort aimed at spotting “ten clear rules” to follow based on a huge database of many nations and many decades”
- William Easterly, *The Wall Street Journal*

“In this lively and informative book, Sharma explains his system of 10 rules for identifying economies with good potential. Among the striking conclusions is his bearishness about China, largely because of its huge and growing indebtedness.”
- Martin Wolf, *Financial Times*

“What determines whether countries succeed or fail? That’s the big question Ruchir Sharma sets out to answer in The Rise and Fall of Nations…Sharma’s mission is as ambitious as it is well-executed. A mix of humble pragmatism and daring decisiveness make his tips compelling and credible…The author backs up each of the rules with a combination of hard facts and colourful anecdotes gathered on his travels…Sharma’s tried and tested tenets and eloquent delivery will reward anyone hoping to understand what determines the fickle fortunes of nations.”
- Katrina Hamlin, *Reuters*

“Entertaining, acute and disarmingly honest. . . . [Sharma] has a knack for sharp comparisons between countries. Australia’s history of high immigration is contrasted with Japan’s insularity. . . . He is pithy, too. In countries with rotten financial systems, ‘a shake-up of banking is a shake-up of society.’ . . . Mr. Sharma’s book is a fine guide to the great emerging market boom and bust.”
- The Economist

“Compelling. . . a success. . . . The local insight adds color, while the data reassures us that his analysis is underpinned by more than a series of conversations with taxi drivers. . . . Much more than an investment primer. The issues he deals with, from growth to inequality, are of much broader interest. . . . This does not necessarily mean he will be right ―but it does mean his projections are more easily testable. . . . Sharma’s book provides a good guide for working out what will come next.”
- Duncan Weldon, *Prospect magazine*

“A vital guide to the new economic order. . . . Sharma has been one of the prescient seers of the Chinese debt crisis.”
- Rana Foroohar, *Time Magazine*

“If you have been wondering what’s happening to the world―why for example has England voted to commit economic suicide by leaving the European Union?. . . . The Americans have voted for Donald Trump. . . Donald Trump? What’s going on? Is there a rightwing, anti-immigrant backlash, or is it more complex? In fact much of what is happening is following a pattern, a pattern of global trends that this book has in great detail and mastery documented. . . . An amazing read, I learned a lot from it, and its out-of-the-box thinking.”
- Prannoy Roy, Indian TV news anchor and executive co-chair of NDTV group

“The book is so lively and wandering that it is possible to miss the 10 rules and enjoy it just as a record of Sharma’s learning them.”
- The Indian Express

“The most interesting question of all time is why countries are poor. . . . The Rise and Fall of Nations is a wonderful attempt to answer that question by asking 10 questions. . . . This book is a wonderful way to travel the world, understand the issues countries should care about.”
- Manish Sabharwal, *India Today*

From the Back Cover

Praise for Ruchir Sharma and Breakout Nations

One of Bloomberg’s 50 Most Influential People of 2015 and Foreign Policy’s Top Global Thinkers of 2012.

“The best book on global economic trends I’ve read in a while.”―Fareed Zakaria

“Sharma’s wealth of knowledge … and ample experience on the ground are strong foundations for his exploration of what makes economies break out, or break down.”― Reuters

“For sheer readability and insight on the developing world drama, I dare say you won't find a better choice.”― Wall Street Journal

“Combines keen on-the-ground reporting and economic and investment analysis with lively, lucid prose.”― Forbes

“Smart geoeconomic insights.”― Foreign Policy

“Prescient.”― Washington Post

“I love this book. It really snuck up on me. It will sneak up on you too.”―Tom Keene, Bloomberg TV